Advent of Solar Power - New Series - Part 1

I have been writing about renewable energy for quite some time. After a hiatus, I come back with the same theme. Except that, now I am having a feeling that several politico-economic forces are now coming to a point where the relevance of solar energy is increasing and capturing a greater mindshare in people's minds.

First up, the recent attacks on fuel convoys in AfPak region have cause the American military to reduce reliance on fossil fuels : U.S. Military Orders Less Dependence on Fossil Fuels. US Defence has been a pioneer in so many inventions and innovations (computer to computer networking, light materials, non-stick coatings,...the list is endless) that it is impossible to ignore this as a speck in the landscape. This will prove to be a turning point.

In US again, California's struggle to improve the share of renewable energy sources to its energy hungry population is well known.

As European economies force their citizens to enter the difficult phase of austerity, there will be no choice but to either reduce energy consumption or reduce oil dependence. To ensure the wheels of economy turn whilst they cut down on the fiscal excesses, Governments are bound to prefer the latter. Hence the argument for renewables.

More in the next post. And this time, the post will come in a weeks time.

Going Green in India - Story of Solar Entrepreneur

An excellent article on story of a Solar Entrepreneur in WSJ - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126090748287292467.html

It speaks of how the costing of solar power is difficult and the entrepreneur needs incentive (or subsidy...any way you see it is fine) from the Central Government. IMHO, just reduce the environmental hazard element from the cost and the equation will get balanced. (Yes I know it is not that simple...but then what is?)

The article is also a reflection on how much more we, as a country, have to travel to become a truly pro-entrepreneurial society.

Just one question, why use farmland for such energy generation when we have deserts and mountains that are relatively free from farming / cattle grazing needs? I am sure there is a reason, just that, I am not aware.

Going Green - LEDs to replace CFLs?

Light Emitting Diode or LED has come a long way from being mainly used in small Indicators and signs to being used for traffice signals. The most common use in 90s was in power circuits. LED market really picked up in India when banks started using them to display token numbers. In the last few years, they have become so common that we have lost count - traffic signals, remotes, TVs, small devices...so many uses.

LEDs have already become the choice technology for traffic signals in many cities. They have saved substantial energy for many traffic departments.  This article assesses that traffic signals saves upto 80% power with LEDs. They can also be used with their own Solar Power source.

LEDs are now being considered a substitute to even CFL bulbs. Yes CFL bulbs. CFL bulbs are replacing the Incandescent bulb as the greener choice with much lesser power consumption and longer life. LEDs are now being considered for domestic lighting. Even I was surprised to stumble upon this report.

Check this calculation from OSRAM where the power consumed by LED lamp is same as CFL but its life is almost 25 times. It also suggests that the cost of manufacture is also small.

Now we have to wait and watch when this technology becomes viable for sale in domestic markets. The demand will have to be generated using the green merits of this technology. But the idea sure seems great at the moment.

The Indian market (and other emerging markets) will pick up only when the prices fall enough to allow the LED lamps to compete with CFLs. Higher prices will only generate lukewarm interest from a limited segment.

Here is a detailed article on NYTimes on this one.

Investing in Alternative Energy - Scenario Analysis

Fundamentals of Alternative Energy

OK...no introduction in this post. We know alternative energy is one of the biggest possibilities in the future. There are several technologies in the arena - Wind, Solar, Nuclear, Tidal. Each one has its own technical needs. Each one has been invested in from investors across the world.

The obvious reasons these are promising are because they are independent of burning fossil fuels. That means lower carbon emissions and hence reduction in warming. I know, there is still some debate on whether global warming is really happening. I am not an expert but I believe in the phenomenon. In my opinion, it is the manifestation of the effects of the uncontrolled experiment of letting smoke into the atmosphere.

Current Status and Hindrances

Wind power needs only incremental changes to turbine technology but it has huge land needs and site selection is critical. Solar technology is still behind in efficiency terms. Nuclear energy poses the challenge of toxic waste.

Add to the above, the above are not yet financially competitive. And each one is facing the uphill task of competing with traditional power. One of the problems is of economies of scale. For example, the demand for solar cells is not high enough to cause scale production. This means higher cost of equipment which translates into higher price per watt.

 Also, the incumbents are not going to easily make space for new technology. While they continue to invest in this area, they are still ok since green power is still not the automatic choice of consumers.

Possible Tipping Point?

Across the world,  the moment substantial incentives are announced such that they make solar / wind energy affordable, then the demand for green energy will shoot up. Green energy has an inherent appeal for most people. When challenged with questions like, "Would you not like your grand-children to breathe cleaner air?", people choose green energy over thermal energy. Then it is left to how much they can afford to pay?

When the incentives come and eventually costs match, consumers will start shifting. Then, the current conventional power companies will start heavily investing in generating green energy (Remember, they already have the required land needed to put up solar or wind plants.) This will further push up the supply and bring down the costs.

The Big Question

Incentives are already existing that encourage these alternative energy sources. It is said that these are not enough. So, either they will be raised or newer incentives (like bonus for saving emissions / coal / etc.) will be introduced.

The question is When? That, my dear reader, is anybody's guess. The real winners will be those investors who would have been already invested in this sector when the announcement(s) come.

Going Green - Denmark's Samsoe island

Denmark, in 1997, decided to have a showcase island to show how an entire area can be independent of hydrocarbons. This is impressive. Go ahead and read this story of the Samsoe island.

Also, more importantly, check this link where a case is made for sustainable economic growth while going green.

Amazing...I think all other countries should ask Denmark to help them in establishing such hubs. One by one, perhaps in next 50-60 years if each country keeps a target of 50% of its needs from renewable / alternate sources, then there is a good chance that we will be able to handover this planet to the next generation in a healthier and greener state.

Going Green - Case of incentives to Solar and other green options

One more article that reflects thoughts on incentives that many green power supporters have been speaking about - http://www.livemint.com/2009/11/05214331/Will-India-light-the-fuse-for.html?h=B

I had also written an article some days ago about the need here http://indian-eagle.blogspot.com/2009/10/going-green-with-lower-solar-costs.html

Here is an interesting link that gives month-by-month price indices of Solar electricity. Lots of other links that have great info -  http://www.solarbuzz.com/solarprices.htm

One more great link is the fast-facts link http://www.solarbuzz.com/fastfactsindustry.htm

Going Green with Lower Solar costs

This NYTimes Green Inc. article reports a decline in cost per watt to generate solar energy. In US, it has reduced from by about $0.30. 

What I found interesting is this line - "...though the actual cost to homeowners actually increased slightly as state incentives for installing solar arrays fell faster than module prices."

I remember doing a study on solar power generation during my studies. We actually realized that the installed base of wind power has increased at a far higher rate than solar in India in last 10 years or so. We concluded that while technology improvements will bring down costs, yet Government focus on this sector is very important. 

Especially for a technology that is seemingly stagnant for a long period. Probably the only nation that has solar power firmly on its radar is Germany. Most other nations are allowing industry to come up with solutions that have to compete with traditional power generation.

There is a need to stimulate demand that will lead to reduction in prices. Such stimulus comes through incentives. Another way is to allow individual users to use solar tech to bypass the grid. Perhaps small steps are the way to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.