Nov 4, 2009

Economics Conundrum - Case of Information Over-supply?


I read this amazing article in BusinessWeek - "Why No One Knows Where the Economy Really Stands".

Check this excerpt about the Jobs Data during the boom, "BLS overstated the strength of the economy during good times, and now that fiction will come crashing down on our heads in the first quarter of next year."

The next excerpt of note is on the Stock Markets, "But using what the stock market is doing now as factual data is potentially treating another asset bubble as financial reality."

Just makes me think if the if we are living in a world of Information oversupply where every little bit boosts one section of investor or another? It is Irrational Exuberance, but is it just unavailability of well organized data? Reminds me of our MicroEconomics Professor - Prof. Gupta's favorite phrase, "Garbage In, Garbage Out". :)

Sometimes one feels so much information just leads to more confusion. But then, without it we have the information asymmetry problem. Not sure what we can do of this paradox.
I guess, the author concludes well when he says that real issues can be tackled once accurate data is obtained and analyzed.

Nov 3, 2009

Warren Buffet invests in Railways.

Warren Buffet is investing in railways in US. Looks like he is convinced on the economy's rebound as well as the return of consumer buying in the US.

More importantly it seems that the he is convinced that US will see a rise in usage of railroad infrastructure over highways etc. That also indicates an interest in green infrastructure initiatives.

BNI also has presence in Asia which is continuing as the growth story across the world. The railway co.'s shares jumped a good 30% (from a P/E of 14 to almost 18).

Here is the LA Times story - http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-berkshire4-2009nov04,0,6604215.story

NY Times is also reporting that Buffet is paying a part of this deal in Berkshire stocks for tax purposes.
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/berkshire-to-buy-rest-of-burlington-northern-for-44-billion/?ref=business

Incredible India? How much is it and how much it needs to be?

This Sunday was one of those days when I tried to unravel the hidden meaning of that slogan 'Incredible India'. Went to see Red Fort. It looks magnificient from outside. The flag waving high makes you wonder how it would be from inside. In a nutshell - not too good. 

It starts outside, where you have to buy a ticket. For the unitiated, Red Fort is one monument that almost every Indian recognizes. On a Sunday morning, we had all of 2 ticket windows. The booths are almost underground and there are no signboards. So you end up asking others, "Is this the line for tickets?" The speed is slow. There are arguments over change. And 2 ticket windows are closed.

It is vacation time and a lovely October Sunday and there are hundreds of visitors and you keep 2 ticket windows closed. Bye bye Operations Management principles. Folks aint there to see the ticket seller. I am sure many people just leave after seeing the long queues.

While the exteriors are certainly well kept, interiors leave you disappointed. 

Dust left uncleaned, maintenance tools left unattended, odonil packets inside the supposed trasures from Mughal empire (trust me Odonil of all odours along with royal curtains, bedsheets and gowns), Pan spits left unpenalized...

The only thing that was well maintained was the lawn inside and outside the Fort. 

What about the visitors?
Not too encouraging. I think we, Indians, are not even good tourists. Many were trying to sneak inside restricted areas. Or trying to test the toughness of glass protecting the antique items. Or ensuring that red fort remains red with their lovely paan spit. Is there a way to make people wash their mouths before they enter such places? Just enforce it. Just because the ticket is Rs.10 does not mean that the monument is there to waste. I really think that the ticket should be raised such that people start valuing what is inside. Make it Rs. 50 or even Rs. 500 to keep these spitting idiots away.

Misery a-la-carte
In the afternoon we went to the restaurant inside - Daawat (run by Samrat Hotels). While the menu claimed several exotic items, they had, for our information, highlighted in red (no - not stricken out but highlighted) those items that were not available. With 50% items gone, we learnt that only lunch items were served at that time (fyi, that time was 3.30pm). So we had a Paratha and tea/coffee. It took super long  for these 3 extremely complicated items to arrive. I must admit the taste of all 3 was good - no complaints there. But then, the bill would simply not come. I actually volunteered to pay at the desk, then the calculator came out...

Finally, out of the fort, we wait for a good 20 minutes to get an autorickshaw. But that I guess is out of the purview of the tourism rant. That is back to Delhi's old ways.

Incredible huh!

My suggestion to folks in charge. Get the basics right. You really don't need any slogans after that. Else these lovely monuments are just relics abandoned as relics.

Nov 1, 2009

Nortel values its Patent portfolio

Nortel is paying about 350K for about 3500 patents it is planning to sell. It has hired Global IP for the valuation.

I had discussed the valuation approach in terms of market potential and the possibility of options in this part sometime ago. The news does not speak of option but it does say of market potential and value maximizing using scenario analyses.

Check this URL for details -
http://www.allaboutnortel.com/2009/10/31/nortels-patent-analysis-deal-with-global-ip-2/

Interesting telecom blogs

Some very interesting telecom blogs

http://3g4g.blogspot.com/

http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/

http://comworldseries.blogspot.com/

http://www.mobilefuture.org/blog/

Disclaimer

All the opinions expressed are of the author only. Any action taken by readers on the basis of this blog is entirely at the readers' risk and they are solely responsible for the same.
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